Football Simulation

In continuing with the simulation talk, here is an article that I found very fascinating on a few different levels.

First I want to say that I am a football fan, or as us ‘mericans call it, soccer. I played pretty much my whole life and now that I am retired enjoy watching it on any chance I get. As I said above, I found this article interesting on two different levels. One is of course the idea of running a simulation and seeing how it plays out in the far future, 1,000 years. That in and of itself is more than enough for a Random Thought post. But, again because of my fandom I found this interesting on a completely different level, being that of a football fan itself.

I will start with fan aspect, if you do not care about this you can skip ahead, as I know that there are very few individuals that enjoy soccer, much less talking about it. I understand, as it is a very classy sport that usually attracts a certainly level of sophisticate. Anyways the main points of the article are that a guy basically simulated 1,000 seasons or years of soccer into the future and recorded the results. I was surprised about how much detail the simulation actually was able to return. Like Sheffield United winning 167 Premier League titles, which is like the Toronto Raptors winning that many NBA titles. It is near impossible to fathom. Another funny thing, and I hope it comes to pass, is that Chelsea imploded and spent over 800 years in the lower divisions. While this is quite comical it also could maybe happen. Chelsea has for the most of football history seen limited success in the Premier League, until recently by that I mean the last 10 to 15 years. The reason for the is because Russian billionaire bought the club about 12 years ago, and from this point on the club has been much more successful.

Now the reason I find all this interesting is that many years from now how will Chelsea handle not having a billionaire owner. If we believe the simulation, not very well. It is hard for a team that has had limited success and has less of a championship history to have long term success, that is where the simulation takes over. I seriously doubt that Chelsea will spend over 800 years in the lower divisions of English football, but if you look at the scenario it is certainly plausible and as with most things in life, expect the unexpected.

There were other interesting points that the simulation brought up as well, like an FA Cup final that only saw 14 people in attendance. This is the equivalent of the Super Bowl only have 14 people to watch it wherever it was held. While at first this truly must be a glitch, and probably is, there was a Champions League game where no fans were admitted into the stadium because of racist behavior. So the attendance for that game would have been 0, and while it may look odd, it actually happened. So the 14 people could be an glitch or there could be some other factors going on that we don’t know about. The article alludes to a potential global conflict or maybe a similar incident of racism, or perhaps soccer became wildly unpopular that season. As you can see it is easy to take this data and start to analyze it to come up with a plausible scenario.

While I did not think it was as fascinating the article talks about the wages and how they seemed to cap at some point in 2054 or so. Which this is where the global conflict comes into play according to the writer, or maybe the economy went into another depression. Whatever the reason the salaries did not recover for centuries.

My biggest question is how did Manchester United fare, I am sure they won an obscene amount of trophies and had unparalleled success. Right? Well fingers crossed at least.

So now on to the more scientific side of this whole idea. I did find it fascinating that when starting to analyze the numbers and everything else that was involved you sometimes get some bizarre coincidences. As I mentioned the Champions League game in real life where no fans attended, which can be explained, because we know the reason. What is weird is that it happened again, although this time we do not know the reason. It is easy to say that it was probably just a glitch, but given how real life is sometimes stranger than anything we could imagine, you have to wonder under what scenario would this actually happen?

That to me this is what makes this so interesting, and the fact that it just has to do with soccer is even more interesting. It is basically one very minute aspect of human life and even using that one simple aspect and given many years of simulation it creates so many questions about how or why certain things happen.

As always I am not sure I have a point other than maybe running a simulation is much harder than we think, especially when dealing with an entire universe over billions of years, billions of individuals, and an infinite amount of choices that can be made. Still though you would imagine that for a super advanced civilization this would not be a problem. Perhaps we are assuming too much when it comes to this idea that it is easy and can be done basically on a whim.

I am still of the mindset that a super advanced civilization, if they had the computing power, would only create a handful of simulations. So if we play the numbers game there are probably, I use that term lightly I suppose, only a hand full of these types of civilizations out there, and let’s say less than 100, and they each created less than 100 simulations a piece, so roughly 10,000 simulated universes. This is where the super unknowns come into play. Would they continue the simulation if no life arose, simply for scientific purposes, or would they simply stop it? Would they tweak it to make it habitable for life to arise, my point is that the possibilities are quite literally endless. What would greatly help is to understand the purpose of running the simulation in the first place, then we could see if their goal was to create life, or simply learn about another universe.

So given the 10,000 simulated universes let’s say half were created just to observe a universe while the other half’s purpose was to try and create life. So there are 5,000 simulated universe’s out there that have some form of life in them. I have no idea what to compare that to to get an average or percentage that we could be in one of those universes. I honestly think it comes down, for now, on what you believe about reality. If you believe that we live in the multiverse, where there are infinite universes then I would think that the odds are in our favor that we live in a “real” universe. However, upon writing that last sentence I realized that there is a circular argument in there. If there are infinite universes there would be infinite advanced civilizations creating infinite simulations so if that is the case then we are most likely in a simulated universe and not, they seem to both be right because there is an infinite number of both. AHHH!!!!!!

If your head has not exploded, and you believe we live in a single universe then I think the odds are in favor of living in a simulation, because there is a 5,000 to one chance this is a simulation based on my simple math above.

It seems that this comes down to where you start and with the multiverse theory it seems that both answers are correct, but until we know for sure which one we live in I think the answer is both, at least for now. In the future I can only hope that some of these arguments, paradoxes, and circular references will get figured out so we can really start to understand our reality, or at the very least start to narrow down some of these ideas. Somehow though, I think that the more we figure out the more our reality, our universe will remain the ultimate mystery.

Manik

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